House prices at all time highs – what next?

Do you believe in market cycles and that forecasts can be accurate?

Take a look at the following chart from economist Martin Armstrong who has been predicting these things for Governments and Banks for a long time.

realestate-cycle (Source: Martin Armstrong, see below)

Also note that the average UK house prices overtook the pre-crash record for the first time recently and US home sales also reached eight year peak and prices all time high. (sources below)

Many people may have forgotten what happened when the prices were this high last time and in a bubble just 7-8 years ago.

The inevitable crash was postponed/minimised by Government intervention and keeping dishonest bankers in business. Politicians supported their friends at the Banks with taxpayer money, so they could continue to launder for criminals, charge excessive fees, rig interest rates in their own favour, pay big bonuses and all the other fraud that has been going on and continues.

This money has flowed away from the ‘people’ and into the stock market, corporations and CEO pockets. The FED didn’t raise interest rates as they probably want a good Christmas of spending from people and enough time to fill their boots.

Politicians have been giving themselves pay rises, whilst the public coffers have been emptied.
Banks don’t have enough real assets to cover all the money they gamble with and pay their ‘top’ employees.
Governments all over the world are in debt and many take out new lines of credit, to try and pay the interest on their previous borrowing. Eventually this will stop.
The race is on between America and a European country to finally admit it can’t pay it’s debts.

On top of that, the wars and instability being caused is creating mass migration of people looking for a better way of life. So when ‘immigrants’ turn up expecting a little help, everyone forgets how well off they have been in the past and the fact they are also ‘children’ of migrants themselves.
These poor people have seen the media and ‘adverts’ stating America and Western Europe are the richest and best places to live in the world, especially as they have accumulated so many of the worlds resources over the decades/centuries.
(See the TV and movies that sell you the ideal lifestyle, as opposed to the News which is designed to keep you in fear and looking for answers/protection from the Govt.)

OK, I think I’m ranting now so let’s get back on track.

So what is likely to happen next?

The bankrupt Governments can’t continue printing money at these rates to put into the stock market and interest rates only have one direction to move. When that happens and the markets contract, the stock market bubble and property (real estate) bubble will deflate as well.

My guess is that there is about 1 year (maximum) to get your investments in order and get ready to stick it out for the long term. The first signs will be from America or a defaulting European country in the next few months before it goes mainstream.

What can you do to hedge yourselves against it happening?

– Sell any properties that are highly leveraged right NOW, which are bringing in a low yield.
When interest rates increase and prices drop, these are the ones that will suck your cashflow and reserves dry.

– Don’t buy house for the sake of growing your portfolio (or because you want to move to a new house), only invest for yield with bigger deposits than you would normally want to put down.

– Leverage can work in your favour in an up trending market but it is even more dangerous in a down market.

– Speculators and those investing in new build, big blocks and the new bubble of student accommodation will likely be hit worse.

– Pay down as much as you can on your principle residence.

– Property and business is once again going to become about the long term sustainability as opposed to short term and quick returns.

I learned my lessons the hard way from experience 7/8 years ago. Fortunately I don’t have to repeat it this time. Will you learn from past experience or is another rude awakening required?

The good news is property will become more affordable for people to buy their own homes and there will be the opportunity to buy businesses based on income and yield, instead of simply speculating with borrowed money.

More information here:
http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com/
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jul/28/house-prices-in-england-and-wales-hit-record-high
http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/us-existing-home-index-2015072310783.html

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